Increased demand for dollars at the end of the quarter sparked appreciation of the U.S. currency in Ukraine by 9 cents.
The last two days have been turbulent for the Ukrainian currency market. On Wednesday the dollar buying rate in the interbank market grew by 5 cents - up to 7.66 hryvnia to the dollar. Opening of Trade on Thursday was also accompanied by appreciation of the U.S. currency - to 13.00 quotes for the purchase reached the point at 7.70 hryvnia to the dollar. However, the closure of the trading session the currency managed to fall in price by 5 cents. Cash foreign exchange market reacted to the vibrations of IBA increased the dollar by 3 cent - up to 7.66 hryvnia to the dollar (the average buying rate in the Kiev banks evening of June 25).
Demand exceeded supply The financiers are called a few reasons of currency fluctuations. Main - increased demand for foreign currency in connection with the completion of II quarter. Importers of traditionally spend most of the calculations at the end of quarters. As a result, the demand for currency is growing stronger and the dollar's value in Ukraine. Thus, the assessment counselor predpravleniya Ukrhazbank Alexander Okhrimenko, this week the volume of trading on the interbank market increased compared to last week by 20-40%. At the same time, dealers of commercial banks noted that the offer of currency on the market now insignificant. "When the dollar rises in price for a few cents, many withdrew from the sale currency - hoping that she might appreciate even more", - says the treasurer of one of the banks.
Also, do a disservice to UAH and going wild liquidity of the domestic banking system. So, on Wednesday the remains of the correspondent accounts of banks reached a maximum value this year - 24.3 billion hryvnia. And experts do not exclude that, despite all the limitations of the National Bank, some part of excess liquidity still seeped in the interbank market, which has placed additional pressure on the hryvnia.
"Several major operators of the market came with the purchase of the dollar. This is a number of major banks, most of them with foreign capital. Rather, they buy the currency to repay their external obligations ", - explained the treasurer of a large bank.
Summer Calm The views of the majority of market participants regarding the future course of the hryvnia in the summer months are almost identical. Most experts believe that the increase in the dollar this week is not the beginning of a trend to increase. And in early July, the dollar's value be rolled away to their traditional summer values. "At the beginning of July we will see rate to 7,61-7,63 UAH per U.S. dollar", - says head of financial markets, ING Bank Andrey Potapov.
"The two-day increase was not significant in order to make any conclusions about trends in the currency market, to the same motion in the 5 cents - this is very small. I do not think that someone would shatter the course during the summer ", - considers the head of Treasury Industrialbank Alexander Fomin.
But the more distant future hryvnia seen the experts do not so stable. Almost all predict the devaluation of national currency in the autumn months. "In the autumn we will see the fall of the hryvnia. In order to hold it, we need a very serious concern ", - said the director of the Department of the Treasury BG Bank President Yerasov. This opinion is shared by Alexander Fomin.
However, there are more optimistic financiers. "I do not expect the fall of growth rate. After all legal methods "breakthrough" in excess of hryvnia currency market is left "- opposes colleagues Andrey Potapov.
The last two days have been turbulent for the Ukrainian currency market. On Wednesday the dollar buying rate in the interbank market grew by 5 cents - up to 7.66 hryvnia to the dollar. Opening of Trade on Thursday was also accompanied by appreciation of the U.S. currency - to 13.00 quotes for the purchase reached the point at 7.70 hryvnia to the dollar. However, the closure of the trading session the currency managed to fall in price by 5 cents. Cash foreign exchange market reacted to the vibrations of IBA increased the dollar by 3 cent - up to 7.66 hryvnia to the dollar (the average buying rate in the Kiev banks evening of June 25).
Demand exceeded supply The financiers are called a few reasons of currency fluctuations. Main - increased demand for foreign currency in connection with the completion of II quarter. Importers of traditionally spend most of the calculations at the end of quarters. As a result, the demand for currency is growing stronger and the dollar's value in Ukraine. Thus, the assessment counselor predpravleniya Ukrhazbank Alexander Okhrimenko, this week the volume of trading on the interbank market increased compared to last week by 20-40%. At the same time, dealers of commercial banks noted that the offer of currency on the market now insignificant. "When the dollar rises in price for a few cents, many withdrew from the sale currency - hoping that she might appreciate even more", - says the treasurer of one of the banks.
Also, do a disservice to UAH and going wild liquidity of the domestic banking system. So, on Wednesday the remains of the correspondent accounts of banks reached a maximum value this year - 24.3 billion hryvnia. And experts do not exclude that, despite all the limitations of the National Bank, some part of excess liquidity still seeped in the interbank market, which has placed additional pressure on the hryvnia.
"Several major operators of the market came with the purchase of the dollar. This is a number of major banks, most of them with foreign capital. Rather, they buy the currency to repay their external obligations ", - explained the treasurer of a large bank.
Summer Calm The views of the majority of market participants regarding the future course of the hryvnia in the summer months are almost identical. Most experts believe that the increase in the dollar this week is not the beginning of a trend to increase. And in early July, the dollar's value be rolled away to their traditional summer values. "At the beginning of July we will see rate to 7,61-7,63 UAH per U.S. dollar", - says head of financial markets, ING Bank Andrey Potapov.
"The two-day increase was not significant in order to make any conclusions about trends in the currency market, to the same motion in the 5 cents - this is very small. I do not think that someone would shatter the course during the summer ", - considers the head of Treasury Industrialbank Alexander Fomin.
But the more distant future hryvnia seen the experts do not so stable. Almost all predict the devaluation of national currency in the autumn months. "In the autumn we will see the fall of the hryvnia. In order to hold it, we need a very serious concern ", - said the director of the Department of the Treasury BG Bank President Yerasov. This opinion is shared by Alexander Fomin.
However, there are more optimistic financiers. "I do not expect the fall of growth rate. After all legal methods "breakthrough" in excess of hryvnia currency market is left "- opposes colleagues Andrey Potapov.
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